Meeting_Body
OPERATIONS, SAFETY, AND CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE COMMITTEE
JULY 16, 2026
Subject
SUBJECT: NEXTGEN RIDERSHIP UPDATE - Q1 CY2026
Action
ACTION: RECEIVE AND FILE
Heading
RECOMMENDATION
Title
RECEIVE AND FILE status update on NextGen Bus Ridership.
Issue
ISSUE
This report provides an assessment of Metro’s bus ridership for the first quarter (January, February, March) of calendar year 2026, compared to the same Q1 CY2025. Ridership changes are examined by day type (weekday, Saturday, Sunday), service area, Equity Focus Communities (EFCs) and non-EFCs, time period, line/line group, as well as average passenger trip length.
Background
BACKGROUND
• The Metro Board adopted the NextGen Bus Plan in October 2020.
• The NextGen Bus Plan was designed to create a fast, frequent, and reliable Metro bus system and was to be rolled out in two phases: “Reconnect” and “Transit First.”
• “Reconnect” is the initial phase to restructure the existing network and was implemented over three dates: December 2020, June 2021, and December 2021.
• “Transit First” is an additional phase to maximize the plan’s effectiveness through strategic, quick-build capital investments in improved bus speeds and direct revenue service hours (RSHs) saved on bus frequency improvements.
• After ridership peaked in late 2024/early 2025, since June 2025, ridership has shown a reduction compared to the previous year; this appears to be linked to federal immigration enforcement actions that began in that month
The NextGen Bus Plan Reconnect phase implementation established a set of service frequency tiers for Metro’s 117 bus lines, summarized in Table 1.
Table 1: NextGen Frequency Tiers as of March 2026
When fully implemented, the “Transit First” scenario was expected to achieve a 15-20% ridership increase resulting from increased speed of service/reduced travel times after implementing speed and reliability items including new bus lanes and expanded transit signal priority, with reinvestment of time savings to increase service frequencies.
Discussion
DISCUSSION
Travel Market
Before reviewing bus system ridership, it is important to consider changes in the overall travel market in the Metro service area. Overall travel demand is calculated using Location-Based Services (LBS) cell phone data. In 2023, total travel demand remained about 8% below 2019 pre-NextGen levels; in 2024, it was 7% below; and in 2025, 5% below. Charts 4 and 5 in Attachment E contain data by year in total and time of day.
Travel volumes by time of day are mixed:
• AM peak travel volumes somewhat recovered in 2025 after remaining well below 2019 levels in 2023 and 2024.
• Midday travel volumes exceeded 2019 levels in 2023, matched them in 2024, but in 2025, midday travel showed a slight decline to below 2019 levels.
• After a surge in afternoon peak travel in 2022 exceeding 2019 levels in the 3 PM hour, demand leveled off to pre-2019 levels in 2023 and 2024, and slightly below 2019 levels for 2025. The same pattern is seen for evening hours.
• Travel demand during the late evening and overnight hours into the early AM appears to match 2019 levels.
Some of the slight decline in travel demand may be related to immigration enforcement actions, which affect not just transit ridership but overall travel demand. This slight decline in overall travel may also relate to expanded availability of online services and commerce (midday). Telecommuting (AM and PM peaks) likely continues at higher levels than in the past, but some workers are returning to the office on more days per week, including federal workers returning full time in 2025.
Weekday Ridership:
Q1 CY2026 average weekday ridership declined 3.5% compared to the Q4 CY2025 decline of 5.8%, slightly lower compared to the previous quarter. The peak months for Q1 CY 2026 were March 2026 (739,730 down 1.8%), with February 2026 (715,025, down 3.3%) and January 2026 (688,864, down 5.6%) compared to the same months in 2025. Overall weekday ridership trends are depicted by month in Chart 1, Attachment E.
Saturday Ridership:
Average Saturday bus ridership showed year-over-year declines beginning in June 2025 after several years of consistent growth. Average Q1 Saturday bus ridership declined 5.8% compared to the same quarter in 2025, the same reduction as for Q4 CY2025, and was reduced compared to Q3 CY2025 (which was down 6.8%). The reduction was most pronounced in January 2026 (down 6.9%), with February and March down 4.0% and 4.5%, respectively. Monthly Saturday ridership trends are depicted in Chart 2 in Attachment E.
Sunday Ridership:
Average Sunday bus ridership declined beginning in June 2025, though to a smaller extent than on Saturday. Q1 CY2026 average Sunday ridership showed a 2.2% decline compared with Q1 2025, a smaller decline than the 4.4% and 3.8% declines for Sunday Q3 and Q4 CY2025, respectively. This shows a declining rate of average Sunday ridership by quarter. The largest Sunday decline this quarter was 3.1% in January 2026, with February down 2.5% and March down 1.2%. Results by month are depicted in Chart 3 in Attachment E.
Except for Saturday, these results show significant overall reductions in the rate of ridership decline in Q3 and Q4 CY2025, but still a decline compared to the consistent ridership growth before June 2025. This suggests the impacts of immigration enforcement on Metro bus system ridership may be declining. Results for Q1 CY2026 average daily ridership are summarized in Table 2 below.
Table 2: Average Ridership by Day Type Q1 CY2026 compared to Q1 CY2025
Service Reliability
Service reliability improved in Q1 CY2026 versus Q1 CY 2025, with overall bus system on-time performance at 76.5%, up from 75.5% in the same quarter of 2025. This improvement should support ridership retention and growth and should not be considered an overall cause of ridership decline this quarter.
Ridership Impacts from Fare Programs
The introduction and expansion of new fare programs (e.g., GoPass for students and LIFE Program for low-income riders) have likely contributed to ridership growth and recovery in 2024 and 2025.
The overall LIFE Program and GoPass boardings growth continued throughout CY2025, even with the overall ridership decline in the second half of CY2025. While some of these programs’ growth is due to new participants, much of it is due to existing riders enrolling. Enrollment and use of these programs have slowed, likely due to immigration enforcement impacts, though they may be helping offset lost ridership.
Ridership by Service Area
Overall, Q1 weekday bus system ridership declined 3.5% compared to 5.8% in Q4 CY2025. There are notable changes, with larger rates of decline in two service areas and reduced rates of decline in three areas compared to Q4 CY2025.
Average Q1 CY2026 weekday ridership compared to Q1 2025 showed declines in all service areas, with the least declines in the San Gabriel Valley and Westside Central, but with large reductions in the rate of decline for South Bay Cities, San Fernando Valley, and Gateway Cities in Q1 CY2026 compared to the previous quarter. Table 5 (Attachment E) shows full year-over-year details of the percentage change in average daily ridership by service area between Q1 CY 2026 and Q3 and Q4 CY 2025.
Saturday system ridership decreased overall, down by 5.8% in Q1 CY2026 over Q1 CY2025, the same as compared to 5.8% in CY2025 Q4, with San Gabriel Valley was least impacted while largest declines were still in South Bay Cities and Gateway Cities.
• These patterns differ from those on weekdays, with steeper declines in Gateway Cities and the San Gabriel Valley in Q1 than in Q4. However, Westside Central, South Bay Cities, and San Fernando Valley saw some mild reductions in the rate of Saturday ridership decline compared to Q4 results.
Sunday ridership in Q1 CY2026 declined overall. However, the rate of decline was less than in Q3 and Q4 CY2025 (down 2.2% compared to 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively). In all five service areas, the rate of decline was less than that of Q4 CY2025; there were significantly lower decline rates for Sunday in Q1 CY2026 in Gateway Cities, South Bay Cities, and Westside Central service areas.
Map 1 in Attachment E shows a comparison of average weekday ridership for Q1 2026 as a percentage of Q1 2025 ridership, illustrating by LA City neighborhood and other LA County cities the level of ridership decline. In Q1 CY2026, larger declines in ridership remain evident in areas affected by the January 2025 fires; these areas account for only a tiny portion of overall bus system ridership, and ridership has begun to recover following service restoration in Q1 CY2026. However, community rebuilding continues, and five bus stop pairs remain out of service on Pacific Coast Highway south of Malibu. Outer areas of the network tended to show increased ridership compared to Q1 CY2025 while small declines were seen year over year in more central parts of the network.
Ridership in EFCs
In Q1 CY2026, EFC boardings as a proportion of total boardings were 1.4% higher than the same quarter of 2019 for weekdays (up 0.6% in Q4 CY2025), up 0.1% for Saturday but down 0.2% from Q4 CY2025, and down 0.1% for Sunday and the same as Q4 CY2025. Compared to Q4 CY2025, this was a big gain for weekdays (0.8%), a minimal change on Saturday (0.2%), and no change for Sunday in Q1 CY2026.
Ridership by Time Period
Comparing Q1 CY2026 with Q1 CY2025, weekday early AM and AM peak period ridership showed the largest year-over-year declines of 4.5% and 5.7%, respectively. These are far less than the 11.7% and 9.6% year-over-year declines in Q4 CY2025. The midday period was down 3.2%, and the PM peak was next most impacted with a decline of 2.1%, far less than the 6.4% and 7.1% Q4 CY2025 year-over-year declines, respectively. This suggests that travel for work may still be most impacted during the AM peak. Weekday evenings, late evenings, and Owl period all showed increased ridership compared to Q4 CY2025. The evening period increased by 3.1%, reversing a 2.8% decline in Q4 CY2025.
Saturday and Sunday ridership showed the largest declines year-over-year for Q1 CY2026 as follows:
• AM Peak down 8.4% Saturday (down from 12.3% in Q4 CY2025) and down 3.6% Sunday (down from 9.1% in Q4 CY2025),
• Midday down 8.6% Saturday (down from 9.5% in Q4 CY2025) and 4.7% Sunday (down from 7.9% in Q4 CY2025)
• PM peak down 7.3% Saturday (down from 7.6% decline in Q4 CY2025) and down 3.5% Sunday (down from a 7.5% decline in Q4 CY2025)
Least impacted for the daytime were:
• Early AM down 0.7% Saturday (compared to down 6.3% in Q4 CY2025) and up 0.8% Sunday (compared to down 3.3% in Q4 CY2025)
• Evening periods up 2.3% (compared to down 2.0% in Q4 CY2025) and up 3.6% Sunday (compared to down 1.7% in Q4 CY2025).
As with weekdays, both Saturday and Sunday late evening and Owl periods increased ridership: Saturday late evening by 5.9% and 10.8%, compared to 1.2% and 0.4% in Q4 CY2025. Full details are available in Table 6 (Attachment E).
Average Trip Length
Weekday was stable at 3.3 miles, while Saturday was up slightly to 3.4 miles, and Sunday was stable at 3.4 miles, matching the average passenger trip length when most recently measured in 2026. Trip lengths have remained very stable since 2022, even with the recent ridership decline, compared to 4.2-4.3 miles pre-NextGen. This is likely due to NextGen Bus Plan’s focus on increasing transit mode share for short-distance trips through more frequent local bus service.
Ridership by Line
Average daily line or line group ridership for Q1 CY2026 versus Q1 CY2025 is compared by day type (weekday, Saturday, Sunday), providing an overview of lines showing varying levels of year-over-year ridership increase or decline (Attachments A, B, and C). Table 7 shows the distribution of line ridership results. Of the 81 weekday bus lines/line groups, 71.6% had ridership in Q1 CY2026 at between 90-99% of Q1 CY2025 ridership levels, with 67.9% of the 78 Saturday lines/line groups and 59.7% of the 77 Sunday lines/line groups also falling within that tier, which was the largest share of all lines.
Even with the overall system-level trend of reduced ridership in Q1 CY2026, 22 weekday lines/line groups (27.2% of total), 12 Saturday lines (15.4% of total), and 29 Sunday lines (37.7% of total) saw ridership growth compared with Q1 CY2025. Interestingly, as in Q4 CY2025, many of these lines/line groups were lower-frequency, lower-ridership Tiers 3 and 4 lines rather than the higher-frequency, higher-ridership Tiers 1 and 2 lines. However, Tier 3 and 4 only make up 14.3% of total weekday ridership while Tier 1 and 2 make up 85.7%, so it will be important to achieve improved ridership on Tier 1 and 2 lines to improve system ridership overall.
Table 7: Average Daily Ridership by Line Q1 CY2026 versus CY2025
Only few lines with increased ridership were associated with service changes. Lines with increased ridership were distributed across the service area as follows, with the San Fernando Valley strongest:
• San Fernando Valley 9 weekday, 5 Saturday, 13 Sunday lines
• San Gabriel Valley 2 weekday, 3 Saturday, 5 Sunday lines
• Gateway Cities 6 weekday, 1 Saturday, 5 Sunday lines
• South Bay Cities 1 weekday, 1 Saturday, 3 Sunday lines
• Westside Central 4 weekdays, 2 Saturdays, 3 Sundays lines
Two bus lines had significant ridership increases, reversing their significant declines in the quarters since Q1 CY2025, resulting from the Palisades fire of January 2025. Line 602 serving Pacific Palisades was the most impacted line, with ridership in Q1 CY2026 up 126.9% on weekdays, 178.6% on Saturdays, and 179.4% on Sundays compared to Q1 CY2025 levels Not all areas' populations have yet to return as rebuilding is ongoing. Except for five miles of closed bus stops on PCH south of Malibu, Line 134 has all other stops restored as of Q1 CY2026, with 205.0% weekday ridership increase, 203.5% Saturday, and 171.9% Sunday.
Besides the fire-impacted lines, the largest line ridership improvement rate year over year was 89.3% (improved over 84.6% in Q4 CY2025) on weekdays, 84.0% (down from 86.5% in Q4 CY2025) Saturday, and 88.1% (improved over 85.3% in Q4 CY2025) Sunday, so other than Saturday, the worst year over year rate decline was less impacted than in Q4 CY2025.
Bus Line Productivity
The measure of passenger boardings per revenue service hour is an industry standard measure of productivity. Table 8 (Attachment E) compares the ten highest- and ten lowest-productivity bus lines based on weekday Q1 CY2026 compared to Q1 CY2025 and provides the same data for those lines on weekends. Bus lines serving some of the LA region’s busiest corridors, such as Vermont Av and Western Av, continue to have the highest productivity, while those with the lowest productivity are often at the outer edges of the system, on less busy corridors. Below is data comparing bus system productivity (passenger boardings per revenue service hour) Q1 CY2026 and Q4 CY2025:
• Weekday: 34.1 (up slightly from Q4 CY2025 at 33.8) passenger boardings per revenue service hour (2026) versus 35.0 (2025)
• Saturday: 33.4 (down slightly from 33.6 in Q4 CY2025) passenger boardings per revenue service hour (2026) versus 35.2 (2025)
• Sunday: 28.7 (up slightly from 28.6 in Q4 CY2025) passenger boardings per revenue service hour (2026) versus 29.2 (2025)
Q1 CY2026 weekday and Sunday productivity improved slightly over Q4 CY2025 but were down over Q1 CY2025, which was before the immigration actions began impacting ridership. Only Saturday did not improve in Q1 CY2026. However, productivity improved in Q1 CY2026 compared to Q1 CY2025 for 19 of 81 weekday lines/line groups, 17 of 78 Saturday lines/line groups, and 37 of 77 Sunday lines/line groups. Improved performance is more common on weekends. In some but not all cases, recent service improvements had been made. Line-level ridership details are in the data tables in Attachments A, B, and C.
Speed and Reliability
Beyond the initial Reconnect phase of the NextGen Bus Plan, which includes route restructuring and the establishment of frequency tiers, the “Transit First” scenario is designed to increase ridership by leveraging faster service and shorter travel times through the implementation of items from the speed and reliability toolkit such as new bus lanes, expanded transit signal priority, and stop optimization. Progress on such implementations includes 80.5 lane-miles of new bus priority lanes implemented at the end of FY2026 across Metro’s service area. The Florence Av bus lane project is the latest to be installed as of May 2026. Updates on upcoming and recent projects are listed below:
• Sunset Bl Bus Priority Lanes (Metro Line 2): Metro began outreach on this project in Summer 2025. This 8.4-lane-mile project on Sunset Bl between Vermont Av and Havenhurst Dr will improve bus speed and reliability for over 19,000 daily weekday Metro Line 2 riders by converting existing peak-hour parking lanes to peak-hour bus-priority lanes. This project will complement the Alvarado St bus priority lanes that were installed in 2021 and 2023, which also serve Metro Line 2.
• Florence Av Bus Priority Lanes (Metro Line 111): Construction of this peak-hour bus lane project in the City of LA and Unincorporated LA County is complete as of May 2026. This project provides 9.6 lane-miles of peak-period bus-priority lanes in both directions on Florence Av between West Bl and the Florence A Line Station. These bus lanes will improve Metro Line 111 speed and reliability.
• Broadway Bus Priority Lanes (Metro Lines 4, 28, 30, 40, 45, and 90): Metro began outreach on this project in Spring 2026. This 7.9-lane-mile project on Broadway between Cesar Chavez Av and Martin Luther King Jr. Bl will improve bus speed and reliability for over 58,000 daily weekday boardings. The project would reconfigure lanes to add full-time bus lanes in both directions. Design will begin in summer 2026, with construction to happen later in 2027.
• Vermont Transit Corridor: This project continues to advance early implementation of BRT bus lanes ahead of the larger project delivery. The goal is to deliver the speed and reliability benefits of BRT bus lanes as soon as possible so that riders can benefit from improved service, speed, and reliability. At the same time, work continues on other aspects of the larger project.
Bus Lane Enforcement (BLE)
Metro continues partnering with LADOT and West Hollywood to have dedicated parking enforcement details patrol and enforce bus lanes. Enforcing the no-parking regulations in the bus lanes helps riders arrive at their destinations faster and more reliably.
There are now 100 vehicles equipped with photo/video capabilities to capture vehicles stopped or parked in bus lanes during posted operating hours, and at bus stops along the affected routes. A bus lane enforcement expansion program has been approved for funding in the FY2027 capital budget program cycle. The expansion will establish bus lane enforcement on all existing and planned bus lanes throughout the County of Los Angeles and increase the number of vehicles equipped with photo/video capabilities to approximately 400.
Equity_Platform
EQUITY PLATFORM
The NextGen Bus Plan was developed with an equity methodology, placing more service in Equity Focus Communities, which have historically been more transit dependent. A central goal of the NextGen Bus Plan is to provide improved transit service frequencies, travel times, and reliability for Metro riders. Eight in 10 Metro riders are Black, Indigenous, and/or other People of Color (BIPOC); nearly 9 in 10 live in households with total annual earnings below $50,000, and almost 6 in 10 are below the poverty line. Improvements such as greater off-peak frequencies have helped essential workers and other riders make essential trips, with an increased share of off-peak ridership noted during the height of the pandemic.
This analysis shows that a subsequently greater proportion of weekday ridership has occurred among EFC residents since the NextGen changes were implemented, with increased frequency of service and speed and reliability enhancements. The NextGen focus is on providing EFC communities with reduced wait times, shorter travel times, and improved access to key destinations. However, the impact of immigration enforcement in keeping people away from the Metro bus system is negating the potential of the NextGen Bus Plan for increasing ridership.
Staff will continue to monitor ridership in EFC and non-EFC areas to ensure NextGen benefits for marginalized groups are achieved, ensuring that enough service capacity is provided based on ridership, and that all planned NextGen speed and reliability initiatives are implemented with the intended benefits achieved. Staff will also continue to gather rider feedback through the various sources used to gather public input regarding bus services and related adjustments, such as comments received via Metro’s social media channels, Customer Care, and Service Council meetings. These channels provide valuable insight into riders' key customer experience concerns.
Vehicle_Miles_Traveled_Outcome
VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED OUTCOME
VMT and VMT per capita in Los Angeles County are lower than national averages, the lowest in the SCAG region, and on the lower end of VMT per capita statewide, with these declining VMT trends due in part to Metro’s significant investment in rail and bus transit.* Metro’s Board-adopted VMT reduction targets align with California’s statewide climate goals, including achieving carbon neutrality by 2045. To ensure continued progress, all Board items are assessed for their potential impact on VMT to ensure continued progress.
This item supports Metro’s systemwide strategy to reduce VMT through planning and operational activities that will improve and further encourage transit ridership, ridesharing, and active transportation. Metro’s Board-adopted VMT reduction targets were designed to build on the success of existing investments, and this item aligns with those objectives.
While this item does not directly encourage taking transit, sharing a ride, or using active transportation, it is a vital part of Metro operations, as it assesses Metro bus ridership trends. Because the Metro Board has adopted an agency-wide VMT Reduction Target, and this item supports the overall function of the agency, this item is consistent with the goals of reducing VMT.
*Based on population estimates from the United States Census and VMT estimates from Caltrans’ Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) data between 2001-2019.
Implementation_of_Strategic_Plan_Goals
IMPLEMENTATION OF STRATEGIC PLAN GOALS
The recommendation supports strategic plan goals:
Goal #1: Provide high-quality mobility options that enable people to spend less time traveling. Improving the speed and reliability of the bus network will reduce transit travel times and improve competitiveness with other transportation options.
Goal #2: Deliver outstanding trip experiences for all transportation system users. These initiatives help to move more people within the same street capacity, where currently transit users suffer service delays and reliability issues because of single-occupant drivers.
Goal #3: Enhance communities and lives through mobility and access to opportunity. With faster transit service and improved reliability, residents have increased access to education and employment, with greater confidence that they will reach their destination on time.
Next_Steps
NEXT STEPS
Network ridership for the NextGen Bus Plan will continue to be monitored in 2026 as Metro continues to reliably deliver full service. Metro will also continue implementing bus speed and reliability improvements in 2026, such as new bus lanes and transit signal priority. Meanwhile, only an end to immigration enforcement activities may give many riders the confidence to resume riding the Metro system. Another update is planned for the Board in October 2026, covering Q2 CY2026 (April through June 2026).
Attachments
ATTACHMENTS
Attachment A - Weekday Ridership Recovery Comparison by Line and Line Group
Attachment B - Saturday Ridership Recovery Comparison by Line and Line Group
Attachment C - Sunday Ridership Recovery Comparison by Line and Line Group
Attachment D - NextGen Service Tier Changes
Attachment E - NextGen Ridership Review Supporting Data Charts
Prepared_by
Prepared by: Joe Forgiarini, Senior Executive Officer, Service Development, (213) 418-3400
Reviewed_By
Reviewed by: Conan Cheung, Chief Operations Officer, (213) 418-3034
