Meeting_Body
PLANNING AND PROGRAMMING COMMITTEE
SEPTEMBER 17, 2025
Subject
SUBJECT: 2025 SHORT RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN
Action
ACTION: RECEIVE AND FILE
Heading
RECOMMENDATION
Title
RECEIVE AND FILE 2025 Short Range Transportation Plan (Attachment A).
Issue
ISSUE
The 2025 Short Range Transportation Plan (2025 SRTP) is a 15-year financially constrained plan that provides an update to the progress made since the adoption of the 2020 Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), to guide near and intermediate-term transportation investments in Los Angeles County (Attachment A). The SRTP presents a strategic roadmap to improve mobility, safety, and accessibility in Los Angeles County through targeted investments and initiatives approved by the Board.
The 2025 SRTP is presented in response to recent significant global, national, and regional challenges that threaten to impact Metro’s ability to deliver the Board’s priority projects and programs, including post-pandemic transition to remote work opportunities, evolving state and federal priorities, impact of tariffs and trade policies, and lower-than-forecasted sales tax receipts. The SRTP outlines these and other financial risks and regional transportation challenges and provides the groundwork for mitigation strategies, future Board policymaking decisions, the upcoming Measure M Decennial Review and the next LRTP.
Background
BACKGROUND
In September 2020, the Metro Board adopted the 2020 LRTP, which is mandated by state and federal legislation. The 2020 LRTP is a financially constrained plan that identified and examined how Metro’s future transportation investments can be leveraged to achieve maximum mobility benefits for all of Los Angeles County over the next 30 years.
The LRTP organized Metro’s roles and responsibilities thematically into four priority areas: Better Transit, Less Congestion, Complete Streets, and Access to Opportunity. The themes were identified from a two-year outreach effort that included 20,000 survey responses, 38 public meetings, and engagement throughout the region including 77 community events and more.
As part of the adoption of the 2020 LRTP, the Board directed staff to develop the SRTP to address the uncertainty and financial risks created by the COVID-19 pandemic that negatively impact our ability to deliver on our mission. The SRTP identifies several risks, including rising inflation, higher labor and material costs, increased expenses related to maintaining an aging and expanding system, and new state-mandated requirements that continue to drive up both capital project costs and operating budgets. These factors are expected to remain significant influences moving forward.
Discussion
DISCUSSION
The 2025 SRTP shares progress on projects, programs, and policies that support and advance the goals of the 2020 LRTP and identifies Metro commitments through the next 15 years to 2039. It also evaluates challenges and risks based on the current fiscal and financial outlook that threatens to impede the full delivery of the Metro program during this timeframe.
The plan is organized into the same four priority areas developed in the 2020 LRTP: Better Transit, Less Congestion, Complete Streets, and Access to Opportunity. Since the 2020 LRTP adoption, Metro has made significant progress in advancing these four priority areas, all of which incorporate equity and sustainability. Notable achievements include the completion of the K Line and Regional Connector light rail projects, the opening of the LAX/Metro Transit Center, implementation of the NextGen Bus Plan and 70 lane-miles of bus priority lanes, expansion of SoCal 511, and the completion of the Rail to Rail active transportation corridor project. Additional accomplishments include the final environmental report for the Southeast Gateway Line, the Long Beach - East LA Corridor Mobility Investment Plan, the imminent opening of the A Line Extension to Pomona, D Line Section 1 (in late 2025), and creation of 182 affordable housing units via the Joint Development program.
The 2025 SRTP is expected to result in meaningful improvements to sustainable transportation and economic benefits in Los Angeles County. The 2025 SRTP will increase the percentage of households located within a 10-minute walk or roll of fixed guideway transit (light rail, heavy rail, and bus rapid). Countywide, the percentage of households accessible to all transit will increase by 6% (walk) and 13% (roll), which translates to over 260,000 households and 574,000 households, respectively. SRTP investments over the next 15 years are projected to increase daily transit trips by almost 30%, from 1.0 million to more than 1.3 million, when compared to future growth trends without the SRTP. Transit commute mode share is also projected to increase from under 11% to almost 13% by 2039. In terms of economic indicators, the SRTP investments are anticipated to increase gross regional product, which is a measure of economic performance of a region, by $190 billion and create 1.74 million job-years over the 15-year period.
The Metro financial forecast underpinning this plan, referred to as the “October 2024 Short Range Financial Assumptions” (2024 SRFA), includes all Board-approved projects and programs, spending in the agencywide annual budget, and approved life-of-project budgets in a fiscally constrained financial plan for the 2025 SRTP. The 2024 SRFA addresses Metro’s funding needs over the 15-year term, based on assumed costs and projected future revenues as of October 2024.
The 2025 SRTP consists of operational and capital transportation investments over the next 15 years, including $76.6 billion in transit operations and paratransit services, nearly $60.5 billion in transit improvements, and $50.1 billion in highway, streets, roads and active transportation improvements. Specific to the major capital projects included in the Measure R and M expenditure plans, the plan identifies $52.5 billion in transit investment, $11.4 billion in highway, ExpressLanes and multimodal corridor capital improvements and $446 million in active transportation multiuse projects. The full list of projects is included as an attachment (Attachment B).
Under projections and assumptions as of October 2024, the 2024 SRFA indicates that the agency can meet its existing commitments. These include operating the bus transit system at today’s level of service, addressing projected state of good repair needs, and delivering projects and programs identified in the Measure R and Measure M Expenditure Plans. In addition to external risks and pressures on the 2024 SRFA, every Board action—from selecting a Locally Preferred Alternative for a transit capital project, making fare policy, to prioritizing new projects or programs to be delivered—after October 2024 will alter these projections and affect Metro’s ability to deliver on its commitments as presented in the 2025 SRTP. Successfully realizing the full delivery of the 2025 SRTP will depend on the agency’s continued efforts to balance the annual operating budget, secure federal and state funding, mitigate financial risks, and manage capital project costs and schedules effectively.
Managing Financial Uncertainty: Current Challenges and Mitigation Tools
Since the development of the 2024 SRFA, external and internal challenges have emerged that, without intervention, will complicate the agency’s ability to deliver planned projects and programs in full and on schedule.
Over the past 10 years, increases in construction prices have nearly doubled the consumer market inflation rate. As such, many projects are experiencing cost pressures as they progress through the planning and construction phases. Additional pressures include tariffs, labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, and evolving federal and state priorities.
While Metro is delivering the nation’s most ambitious transit capital program fueled by Measures R and M revenues, we also are coming to terms with operating an aging, legacy rail system that will require extensive funding to maintain a state of good repair over the next 15 years. By 2039, Metro’s A Line will be 49 years old, with most sections of the B, C, and D lines crossing the 40-year-old threshold. To maintain Metro’s system safety culture, the agency will invest an increasing amount of limited operations-eligible funds to keep passengers safe and our aging transit system reliable, while also operating new service as it comes online.
If operating or capital costs exceed current assumptions or a reduction in sales tax receipts or grant funding occurs, the Board may need to consider adjustments to the agency’s workplan, although it should be noted that Metro is committed to maintaining the current level of bus service in operation today. Despite these risks, the agency has prepared mitigation tools to provide information on how to potentially address funding gaps and schedule delays, while maintaining progress toward commitments.
Metro has established internal processes and frameworks to help mitigate the impacts of the risks mentioned above. These efforts include conducting ongoing program performance evaluations, identifying project risks early, and aligning budgets with strategic priorities. The Annual Program Evaluation (APE), Early Intervention Team (EIT), Equitable Zero-Based Budget (EZBB), and the Metro Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) are part of Metro’s toolbox to help mitigate risks. In addition, Metro continues to explore adaptable strategies to keep projects moving forward. These strategies include project phasing approaches to manage costs and risks, innovative financing strategies to support project delivery, and a unique, once-a-decade limited funding opportunity through the Measure M Decennial Comprehensive Review.
Equity_Platform
EQUITY PLATFORM
The 2025 SRTP reinforces Metro’s ongoing commitment to equity by prioritizing investments in transportation infrastructure, programs, and services that expand access to opportunity for all. The Equity Platform, the Metro definition of equity, and the Equity Focus Communities (EFCs) identification methodology and map are direct results from 2020 LRTP and are embedded by extension into the 2025 SRTP. The 2025 SRTP also incorporates the latest EFC data, which was updated in 2025 as part of the Define and Measure pillar.
The 2025 SRTP evaluated how the agency’s projects and services impact the communities it serves, aligned with the Focus and Deliver pillar. This includes tracking progress on initiatives like the Joint Development program, which has completed over 2,300 of the 10,000 housing units committed by 2031. Another example includes the implementation of a modified fare restructuring plan, whose overall goal is to expand mobility and increase access to opportunity through an equitable fare structure. In addition, the Office of Equity and Race (OER), in collaboration with Countywide Planning & Development, identified draft Access to Opportunities metrics that will be operationalized across Metro in FY26-28. Finally, the development of the 2025 SRTP involved extensive interdepartmental collaboration and analysis, supporting the Train and Grow pillar.
Vehicle_Miles_Traveled_Outcome
VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED OUTCOME
VMT and VMT per capita in Los Angeles County are lower than national averages, the lowest in the SCAG region, and on the lower end of VMT per capita statewide, with these declining VMT trends due in part to Metro’s significant investment in rail and bus transit.* Metro’s Board-adopted VMT reduction targets align with California’s statewide climate goals, including achieving carbon neutrality by 2045. To ensure continued progress, all Board items are assessed for their potential impact on VMT.
As part of these ongoing efforts, this item is expected to contribute to further reductions in VMT. A VMT analysis for the 2025 SRTP was completed in April 2025. The results concluded that the 2025 SRTP, when fully implemented, would reduce VMT compared to the projected future trend without it. The 2025 SRTP supports Metro’s systemwide strategy to reduce VMT by promoting transit ridership, ridesharing, and active transportation through targeting planning efforts. This aligns with Metro’s Board-adopted VMT reduction targets, which builds on the success of existing investments.
*Based on population estimates from the United States Census and VMT estimates from Caltrans’ Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) data between 2001-2019.
Implementation_of_Strategic_Plan_Goals
IMPLEMENTATION OF STRATEGIC PLAN GOALS
The 2025 SRTP includes and advances all five goals of Vision 2028. The 2025 SRTP is in line with the 2020 LRTP, which calls to “operationalize” its strategic plan initiatives.
Next_Steps
NEXT STEPS
The Measure M Ordinance requires that a comprehensive assessment of each project and program listed in Attachment A of the Ordinance be conducted as a ten-year evaluation or review (“Measure M Decennial Review”). This will be a collaborative process involving various stakeholders and ongoing initiatives, including Metro’s cost-benefit analysis and methodology. The results of this SRTP will help inform the analysis of the comprehensive assessment. The LRTP will begin its update in 2028.
Attachments
ATTACHMENTS
Attachment A – 2025 Short Range Transportation Plan
Attachment B – Transit, Highway, and Active Transportation Investment Tables
Prepared_by
Prepared by: Nancy Lo Wong, Senior Manager, Countywide Planning & Development (213) 922-5346
Paul Backstrom, Senior Director, Countywide Planning & Development (213) 922-2183
Rena Lum, Deputy Executive Officer, Countywide Planning & Development (213) 922-6963
Michael Cano, Senior Executive Officer (Interim), Countywide Planning Development (213) 922-2849
Nicole Ferrara, Deputy Chief Planning Officer, Countywide Planning & Development, (213) 547-4322
Reviewed_By
Reviewed by: Ray Sosa, Chief Planning Officer, (213) 547-4274
Digitally approved by Stephanie Wiggins, Chief Executive Officer