Meeting_Body
OPERATIONS, SAFETY, AND CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE COMMITTEE
JULY 17, 2025
Subject
SUBJECT: NEXTGEN RIDERSHIP UPDATE - Q1 CY2025
Action
ACTION: RECEIVE AND FILE
Heading
RECOMMENDATION
Title
RECEIVE AND FILE status update on NextGen Bus Ridership.
Issue
ISSUE
This report provides an assessment of Metro’s bus ridership for the first quarter of calendar year 2025 (Q1 CY2025), consisting of January, February, and March 2025, compared to the pre-pandemic and start of pandemic/pre-NextGen Bus Plan ridership from the same period in 2019. Ridership changes are examined by day type (weekday, Saturday, Sunday), service area, across Equity Focus Communities (EFCs) and non-EFCs, time period, line or line group, as well as average passenger trip length.
Background
BACKGROUND
• The Metro Board adopted the NextGen Bus Plan in October 2020.
• The NextGen Bus Plan was designed to create a fast, frequent, and reliable Metro bus system and will be rolled out in two phases: “Reconnect” and “Transit First.”
• Reconnect was the initial phase to restructure the existing network, and it was implemented over three implementation dates between December 2020 and December 2021.
• Transit First was an additional phase to maximize the plan’s effectiveness through strategic, quick-build capital investments in improved bus speeds and direct revenue service hours saved on bus frequency improvements.
• While the NextGen Bus Plan was fully implemented by the end of 2021, the national operator shortage during the COVID-19 pandemic required Metro to temporarily reduce service by 10% in February 2022 to stabilize service reliability.
• Full restoration of the NextGen Bus Plan service levels were completed in phases by December 2022.
• Metro continued to operate the full NextGen bus service levels through 2023 into 2024 with improved reliability due to full bus operator staffing, which was achieved by August 2023.
• A 1-2% operator shortage has existed since December 2023, when the operator requirement increased due to greater peak service from higher ridership and recruitment challenges. Recruitment efforts were increased in response, and overall canceled service levels remain low. Full operator staffing was again achieved by January 2025, with cancellation rates during the first half of 2025 reduced to generally under 1% on weekdays and Saturdays and below 2% on Sundays.
The NextGen Bus Plan Reconnect phase implementation established a set of service frequency tiers for Metro’s 117 bus lines (two lines were transferred to Pasadena Transit in December 2024), summarized in Table 1. Tier 1 and 2 lines are all-day, high-frequency services designed to support ridership growth across the NextGen network and support ridership recovery after a decrease caused by the pandemic. Tier 3 and 4 lines ensure neighborhood connectivity and coverage throughout the service area.
Table 1: NextGen Frequency Tiers as of December 2024
When fully implemented, the Transit First scenario was expected to achieve a 15-20% increase in ridership. This expected ridership was attributed to increased speed of service/reduced travel times after implementing items from the speed and reliability tool kit, including new bus lanes, expanded transit signal priority, and reinvestment of time savings for increased service frequencies. Progress on such implementations includes 70.7 miles of new bus priority lanes implemented as of December 2024, and 24 additional lane miles are in planning (Vermont Av) or pending construction (Florence Av, Santa Monica Bl). Transit signal priority is another speed and reliability initiative that should begin implementation in CY2025, with ongoing optimization of bus stops and terminals.
Metro bus ridership continues to recover and is nearer pre-COVID levels as of Q1, with average Sunday ridership exceeding pre-COVID levels. This quarterly report is intended to track progress towards the ridership growth expected from the NextGen Bus Plan, including growth supported by implementing the remaining Transit First bus speed and reliability improvements.
Discussion
DISCUSSION
In examining ridership results to date, it is essential to note the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which began in March 2020 and had significant effects on Metro bus service levels/ridership as well as societal changes such as increased telecommuting.
As of Q1 CY2025, average daily bus system ridership continues to grow. The recovery rates of Q1 CY2025 compared to Q1 CY2019 are:
• Weekday ridership was 87.3% (up from 83.7% in Q1 CY2024)
• Saturday ridership was 103.3% (up from 94.0% in Q1 CY2024)
• Sunday ridership was 105.4% (up from 98.3% in Q1 CY2024).
The San Fernando Valley continues to show the highest ridership recovery in Q1 CY2025 compared to the four other service areas at 94.9% of pre-pandemic Q1 CY2019 levels on weekdays (up from 88.5% in Q1 CY2024), 116.3% Saturdays (up from 103.2% in Q1 CY2024), and 120.8% Sundays (up from 109.1% in Q1 CY2024). Increased ridership of 7.3% occurred on weekdays for the San Fernando Valley over the same quarter of 2024, with a 12.7% gain on Saturday and a 1.7% gain on Sunday. Many San Fernando Valley lines benefit from NextGen Bus Plan investments, especially during off-peak frequencies for many Tier 2 lines (to 15-minute service), with their service improved all day on weekdays, with some weekend improvements as well.
This quarter, the percentage of boardings in Equity Focus Communities (EFCs) is around 1.2% above pre-pandemic levels for weekdays, with a 0.3% increase for Saturday and a slight 0.1% decline for Sunday compared to pre-pandemic levels. Again, the NextGen Bus Plan prioritized EFCs for frequency improvements, especially off-peak weekdays.
Midday weekday Q1 CY2025 ridership recovery was at 90% of pre-pandemic levels, exceeding both AM peak (73%) and PM peak (80%) recovery. This is aligned with investing service hours during the midday period under the NextGen Bus Plan and changes in travel patterns related to factors such as increased telecommuting by office workers.
The Owl period showed the highest recovery at 94%, with the late evening period also high at 93% recovery. These two periods have the highest proportion of transit-dependent riders and declined the least during the pandemic. The performance of lines serving downtown LA and other areas with large offices, such as Westwood and Pasadena, will continue to be monitored as changes to corporate culture are shifting and requiring a return to in-office work by some workers, which may improve ridership recovery on such lines. These changes in office work arrangements are beginning to take effect in late March 2025 for federal workers who are now required to attend their office five workdays each week, so these impacts will be present in Q2 reporting. Similarly, California state government employees must attend their office four workdays per week beginning in July 2025, which will be reflected in Q3 reporting.
The average passenger trip length remains at 3.4 miles for weekdays and Saturday, with 3.5 miles for Sunday, the same as the previous few quarters. It is below the pre-NextGen/pre-COVID average passenger trip lengths above 4 miles, reflecting both post-COVID changes to trip-making (more telecommuting, etc.) and the NextGen focus on increasing market share for the shorter 1-5-mile trips.
In Q1 CY2025, there were 28-weekday lines/line groups (up from 25 in Q4 CY2024 and up from 12 the same quarter of 2024), 50 Saturday lines/line groups (a big jump up from 34 in Q4 CY2024 and up from 26 the same quarter of 2024), and 50 Sunday lines/line groups (down from 53 in Q4 CY2024 but up from 34 the same quarter of 2024) exceeding their pre-COVID Q1 CY2019 ridership numbers. The strongest recoveries continue to be those lines/line groups with significant NextGen improvements.
A more detailed analysis is provided in Attachment A, which this report summarizes. Attachments B, C, and D to this report provide detailed data on systemwide and line/line groups for average weekday, Saturday, and Sunday bus ridership observed between Q1 CY2019 (pre-pandemic and pre-NextGen) and the same period Q1 CY2025. The period of this analysis tracks the significant decrease in ridership at the beginning of the COVID pandemic in early 2020 and the subsequent recovery in ridership and service restoration since 2021, based on the implementation of the NextGen Bus Plan.
Ridership Trends from 2019 to 2024
Complete restoration of bus service by December 2022, combined with more reliable service delivery and the introduction of new fare programs (e.g., GoPass for students and LIFE Program for low-income riders), have contributed to much stronger ridership recovery through 2023 and continued in 2024. This reinforces the importance of frequent and reliable service delivery in attracting and retaining ridership.
Table 2: Comparison of Average Daily GoPass Boardings by Day Type and Year
Table 3: Comparison of Average Daily LIFE Boardings by Day Type and Year
The overall growth in the LIFE Program and GoPass boardings exceeds the overall increase in ridership. However, while some of the growth in these programs is due to new riders participating in them, much of this growth is from existing riders enrolling in them.
The post-pandemic average weekday ridership of 761,757 record set in October 2023, was exceeded in both April and May 2024 (762,811 and 772,969, respectively). The highest monthly averages in 2024 were September (804,279) and October (804,963) 2024. By comparison, in Q1 2025, the highest month for average weekday ridership was March 2025 with 753,249, though this was exceeded in May 2025 with 791,214 (Attachment A Chart 6 - Average Weekday Ridership 2019 - 2024).
Chart 1: Average Weekday Ridership by Month
Ridership by Service Area
Ridership recovery was examined for each of the five Metro Service Council areas. The San Fernando Valley shows the highest rate of weekday ridership recovery at 94.9% in Q1 CY2025 (up from 88.5% in Q1 CY2024). This recovery rate, in part, shows a strong response to NextGen Bus Plan improvements that created a network of 10 local lines and the Metro G Line BRT with 10-15-minute frequencies all day on weekdays across the San Fernando Valley. The NextGen changes improved these lines, especially during off-peak hours when many of these lines had frequencies ranging from 20 to 30 minutes. Several lines in the East Valley were also restructured to match regional travel patterns that were more focused on North Hollywood. The average weekday ridership of the Q1 CY2025 San Fernando Valley area average weekday ridership compared to Q1 CY2024 increased by 8.6%, indicating that ridership growth remains strong.
The four other Service Council areas’ weekday ridership recovery rates for Q1 CY2025 were as follows, each increasing compared to the same quarter in CY2023:
• San Gabriel Valley: 76.9% (down 2.3% from 79.2% in Q1 CY2024 due to two bus lines moving to Pasadena Transit)
• Gateway Cities: 77.9% (up 2.0% from 75.9% in Q1 CY2024)
• Westside Central: 83.4% (up 0.9% from 82.5% in Q1 CY2024)
• South Bay Cities: 82.9% (up 2.1% from 80.8% in Q1 CY2024)
San Fernando Valley had the highest growth rate of 7.3% on weekdays, above that of the other four service areas that grew by between 1.2% and 2.9% over the same quarter of 2024. Increased efforts will be given to these and the other two service areas to identify service improvement opportunities and generate higher ridership. However, the San Fernando Valley service area had a three percent gain in revenue service hours as part of the NextGen Bus Plan, with no other service area having such gains in service. This is a likely primary reason for the ridership gains in the San Fernando Valley and the more limited growth and recovery in other areas.
Saturday's average recovery rate for Q1 CY2025 was 103.3% overall, an increase from 94.0% for the same quarter of 2024. San Fernando Valley again showed the highest recovery, at 116.3% (up from 103.2%), while other areas were 88.4% to 97.1% (up 79.8% from 90.9%). Saturday ridership increased in all service areas by 6.9%-12.7% over the same quarter in CY2024. San Fernando Valley and Gateway Cities had the highest increases at 12.7% and 10.7% respectively, with the other three service areas increasing by between 6.9% and 8.1%.
The average Sunday ridership recovery rate was 105.4% overall, up from 98.3% in the same quarter of 2024. San Fernando Valley's recovery rate was the highest at 120.8% (up from 109.1% in Q1 CY2024), and three other service areas varied in recovery rate from 88.5% to 99.9% (up from 83.7% to 96.0% in Q1 CY2024). Sunday Q1 CY2025 ridership increased by 10.7% for the San Fernando Valley and by between 1.6% and 5.7% for the other four service areas compared to Q1 CY2024.
Table 4: Percentage Change in Average Daily Ridership by Service Area and Day Type, Q1 CY 2025 compared to Q1 CY2024
Table 4 above shows full details of the percentage change in average daily ridership by service area between Q1 CY2025 and Q1 CY2024. See Attachment A, Charts 10-12, Average Weekday, Saturday, and Sunday Ridership Recovery by Service Area Q2 CY2019 - Q1 CY2025.
Ridership by Equity Focus Communities (EFC)
Average daily boardings in EFCs increased by 2.0% on weekdays, 1.6% on Saturdays, and 1.3% on Sundays during Q4 CY2020. This was during the most impactful time of COVID cases, when much of the transit ridership was in EFCs, and people still needed to travel to access jobs and services.
By Q1 CY2025, EFC boardings were 1.2% higher than pre-COVID for weekdays, up 0.3% for Saturday, and slightly down 0.1% for Sunday compared to pre-COVID levels. Trips during the early part of COVID were likely made by people who relied on transit to access essential jobs/services and mainly reside in EFCs. The NextGen Bus Plan prioritized investing in frequency improvements for key lines serving EFCs, which is likely attributed to the 1.2% increase in the share of weekday boardings. This should continue in 2025 for EFCs, though these most recent results show recovery in non-EFC areas is also increasing. This change can also be attributed to choice riders using services in non-EFCs, which may have been slower to recover due to factors such as telecommuting post-pandemic.
Chart 2: EFC Ridership as a Percentage of Total Ridership
See Attachment A, page 16, for further discussion of bus system ridership in Equity Focus Communities.
Lines serving Equity Focus Communities with the strongest ridership recovery (over 100% recovered weekdays and weekends) include:
• Central Av Line 53
• Compton Av Line 55
• W 8th St and E Olympic Bl in East LA Line 66
• Gage Av Line 110
• Century Bl Line 117
• Willowbrook Av Line 202
• Vermont Av Local Line 204
• Soto St East LA and Huntington Park Line 251
• Boyle Heights Shuttle Line 605
Many of these lines operate 15-minute or better service all day on weekdays as a result of the NextGen Bus Plan implementation.
Metro has deployed the full annualized 7 million revenue service hours planned under the NextGen Bus Plan, with service frequencies specifically targeting EFCs. Ridership recovery has been lower on lines serving Downtown LA, which has likely seen reductions in daily office worker attendance due to increased telecommuting and associated impacts on service industry jobs. This is despite NextGen frequency improvements (e.g., Broadway Line 45, Avalon Bl Line 51 in South LA, W Olympic Bl Line 28, and Pico Bl Line 30 serving the inner Westside).
Metro will continue to monitor ridership recovery on each line to determine if adjustments to the NextGen Bus Plan are needed to address impacts, particularly as employers increasingly require a return to in-office work, which should increase transit ridership by these office workers. This includes changes being implemented for federal government workers in March 2025, requiring full-time office attendance (any impacts would be seen in Q2 CY2025) and California state government employees who will need to attend their office four days per week starting in July 2025 (any impacts would be seen in Q3 CY2025).
Ridership by Time Period
As of Q1 CY2025, early AM and AM peak periods ridership for weekdays remain the least recovered at 75% and 73% of 2019 levels, respectively, though improved over the same quarter of CY2024 (73% and 70% respectively). The PM peak and evening recovery rates were 80% and 84%, respectively, again with improvements over the same quarter of CY2024 (79% and 81% respectively). By contrast, the base (midday), late evening, and Owl periods share of weekday ridership continued to have the highest recovery rates compared to their 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels at 90%, 93%, and 94%, respectively, again with improvements over the same quarter of CY2024 (87%, 90%, and 92% respectively). This suggests that fewer traditional office workers are commuting on transit during peak morning hours, though factors such as federal and state return-to-office directives may drive further recovery in Q2 and Q3 CY2025.
The increase in midday share of weekday ridership is consistent with the intent of the NextGen Bus Plan to grow ridership during off-peak weekdays. All time periods showed increases in recovery rates of between 1-3% over the same quarter, Q1 CY2024, though the recovery rate increases are much smaller than the increases seen between Q1 CY2023 and Q1 CY2024 which varied between 4-11% and were strongest for the base (midday) (9%), evening (9%), and late evening (11%), with other time periods increasing by 4-6%. The rate of recovery is slowing.
Saturday early AM and AM peak ridership had the lowest recovery rates, both at 91%. In contrast, Saturday base (midday), PM peak, evening, late evening, and Owl showed higher recovery rates at 98%, 96%, 97%, a99%, and 96%, respectively, so these periods are leading the Saturday ridership recovery, and may be impacted by work and leisure travel in the middle of the day into the evening. The base (midday) showed an impressive 11% increase in recovery rate. Other periods showed a 4-7% increase in recovery rate, except the Owl period, which declined slightly by 1% compared to the same quarter in CY2024.
Sunday recovery rates by time period for Q1 CY2025 were topped by early AM, which was 109%. However, the PM peak and evening recovery rates were also fully recovered (100% and 101% respectively), with other periods between 97 and 99% recovered. The evening period showed the largest increase in recovery rate (9%), while other periods increased between 2-6% compared to Q1 CY2024. See also Attachment A, Charts 14-16: Weekday, Saturday, and Sunday Ridership by Time Period Q1 CY2019 - Q1 CY2025.
Average Trip Length
The Metro bus system's average passenger (unlinked) trip length dropped from 4.2-4.3 miles to just below 3.0 miles in the pandemic year 2021. This trend was likely due to a significant reduction in long-distance commuter trips. As ridership recovered in 2022 through 2024, average passenger trip lengths have increased and remained at around 3.5 miles, well below pre-COVID lengths. This change was expected as COVID has transitioned trip-making to shorter trips to address a market identified as a significant opportunity to grow ridership through the NextGen Bus study by providing more frequent local bus lines serving shorter distance trips. This change in average passenger trip length is seen for weekdays and weekends. (Attachment A, Chart 17 Average Passenger Trip Length)
Ridership Recovery by Service Tiers and Lines
This section compares average daily line ridership for Q1 CY2025 versus Q1 CY2019 for each day type (weekday, Saturday, Sunday). Due to the NextGen Bus Plan change involving the restructuring of bus lines and line groups, this analysis must, in some cases, be based on comparing ridership for groups of lines to provide a fair comparison of the changes in ridership at the line level. In Q1 CY2025, 117 individual Metro bus lines were operating (two lines were transferred to Pasadena Transit in December 2024). However, the ridership recovery rate analysis for this quarter is based on 81 weekday, 75 Saturday, and 74 Sunday lines/line groups to allow for a fair comparison. Detailed data is included in Attachments B, C, and D, respectively.
The overall bus system ridership recovery rate in Q1 CY2025 was 87.3% for weekdays, 103.3% for Saturdays, and 105.4% for Sundays, compared to Q1 CY2019 as a pre-COVID baseline. There were 28 (up from 25 in Q4 CY2024 and from 12 in Q1 CY2024) weekday, 50 Saturday (big jump up from 34 in Q4 CY2024 and 26 in Q1 CY2024), and 50 (down from 53 in Q4 CY20-24 but up from 34 in Q1 CY2024) Sunday lines/line groups exceeding their pre-COVID Q1 CY2019 ridership numbers in Q1 CY2025. The Saturday and Sunday results tend to show that these two days may be related, with Saturday showing strong growth this quarter, with less growth on Sunday, which remains largely fully recovered. The review focused on lines showing above and below the system average ridership recovery. The review also examined lines/line groups for the four NextGen Bus Plan Tiers.
The high number of Tier 1 (10-minute or better weekday service) and Tier 2 (15-minute or better weekday service) lines/line groups (which make up almost half of all bus lines) with above-average recovery suggests that the improved frequencies implemented through the NextGen Bus Plan are a vital component of more robust ridership recovery:
Table 5: Line Recovery by Tier and Day Type
Tier 1 and Tier 2 higher frequencies continue to show stronger recovery, while some of these lines also include route changes to better connect riders to key destinations.
The common denominator of lower ridership recovery along some Tier 1 and Tier 2 lines is that they serve Downtown LA. This neighborhood has seen reduced daily work-related trips due to increased telecommuting, which has negatively impacted many downtown service industry businesses and further reduced travel to downtown LA. Some of these lines were also restructured to move riders to other bus lines or, in some cases, rail lines. An opportunity exists to promote downtown LA travel on the new Metro Regional Connector and the Metro bus network for those returning to work, as well as the many leisure and entertainment events occurring there. Metro is also monitoring return-to-office initiatives of the federal and state governments that may help increase ridership recovery in Q2 and Q3 of CY2025.
This same pattern was noted for the G Line BRT service between North Hollywood, Canoga Park, and Chatsworth, with notably lower ridership recovery, especially on weekdays (59.6%) but also on weekends (Saturday 70.7%, and Sunday 73.9%). By comparison, the J Line BRT between El Monte, downtown LA, and Harbor Gateway/San Pedro had just over 100% recovery rate weekdays and much higher weekends, and has shown a much stronger recovery, perhaps from a mix of work and leisure travel. Before COVID, these lines had higher usage by discretionary riders. These riders appear not to be traveling as much for work in downtown LA (the G Line feeds the B Line rail to downtown LA), or other employment centers located in the San Fernando Valley, such as Van Nuys, or Warner Center post-COVID. Again, this may largely be linked to telecommuting by office workers, but Warner Center has also seen the closure of a mall. The G Line in Q1 CY2025 is also now being impacted by long-term detours for the Van Nuys grade separation project, which may divert more riders away from this service. There are also factors related to the poor performance of the signal priority system and some safety-related issues in and around the G Line. Lastly, the G Line may have lost riders to the NextGen improvements to other transit lines in the San Fernando Valley.
Notable ridership changes also occurred in the Vermont corridor, where frequent Local and Rapid bus lines have continued to operate. The ridership recovery rate for the corridor overall was 91.7% on weekdays (up slightly from 91.3% in Q4 CY2024), with the Local Line 204 having a recovery rate of 114.5% (up from 112.0% in Q4 CY2024). By comparison, the Vermont Rapid Line 754 serves a very high EFC corridor with the same frequency as the local line but on a limited stop format and had a ridership recovery rate of 69.3% (down from 70.7% in Q4 CY2024). Line 754 saw notably high cancellation rates in 2022 and to some extent in 2023 and 2024, which may have diverted riders to use the Local bus. The same patterns were seen for Saturday (Local 138.8%; Rapid 74.0%) and Sunday (Local 113.5%; Rapid 87.3%).
As mentioned, the performance of the largely Tier 2 network of lines in the San Fernando Valley is notable for its strong ridership recovery as a group. Other Tier 2 lines across Metro’s service area had similarly high ridership recovery rates. Examples include Line 55 on Compton Av, Line 110 on Gage Av, and Line 117 on Century Bl, all of which serve South LA, as well as Line 260 on Atlantic Av and Line 605, which serve Boyle Heights.
Several Tier 3 lines had frequency improvements that generated high ridership recovery. By comparison, many Tier 4 lines (40-60-minute frequency) had low ridership recovery, with no NextGen route or frequency changes in most cases, and a lower percentage of route miles serving EFCs. It will be essential to test the best performers among these lines by upgrading to a 30-minute service to see what ridership growth potential some of these lines may have.
A new impact this Q1 CY2025 is from the devastating Palisades and Eaton Canyon fires in early January 2025. The impacts of the Palisades fire were primarily on two bus lines:
• Line 134 (Santa Monica - Malibu)
• Line 602 (Westwood - Pacific Palisades)
These lines were suspended for up to seven weeks. Line 134 is now operating but with a 10-mile zone without bus stops on Pacific Coast Highway (PCH) due to fire recovery activity. Line 602 western half from Bundy to PCH remains out of operation due to fire recovery efforts. These impacts are expected to remain in effect through at least the remainder of 2025. Ridership impacts have lowered recovery rates significantly for these two lines, which are seeing less than half their 2024 ridership levels (Line 134 weekday 30.3%, Saturday 42.1%, Sunday 61.4% recovery rates; Line 602 weekday 26.1%, Saturday 49.4%, Sunday 63.2%).
The Eaton fire at Altadena has impacted Lines 660 and 662, which link Altadena and Pasadena. Both lines remain south of Woodbury Rd (originally Washington Bl). Again, these impacts are expected to remain in place through 2025. Ridership has been impacted on these two lines, though not nearly as severe for Lines 134 and 602.
Bus Line Productivity
Data also consistently shows that increased revenue service hours implemented through the NextGen Bus Plan for many lines or line groups generated higher ridership recovery compared to lines that saw stable or fewer service hours compared to pre-NextGen. However, a separate analysis is required for the productivity of lines resulting from the NextGen Bus Plan changes.
While ridership recovery is important, it is also important to determine if the scheduled service hours are being productively utilized. A measure of passenger boardings per revenue service hour is an industry standard measure of productivity.
The NextGen Bus Plan held annual bus service hours at a constant 7 million, and that remains the same in CY2025. However, the distribution of service hours changes between lines and even day types.
The following is a comparison of bus system productivity (passenger boardings per revenue service hour before and after NextGen, comparing Q1 2019 with Q1 2025:
• Weekday: 34.9 (2025) versus 38.2 (2019)
• Saturday: 35.2 (2025) versus 34.4 (2019)
• Sunday: 29.2 (2025) versus 33.7 (2019)
The weekday change in productivity is explained by a 2.7% decline in revenue service hours versus an 11.3% decline in ridership. This simply means ridership has not recovered sufficiently yet to equal or exceed the former productivity level, even with a slight reduction in weekday service hours.
On weekdays, 15 of the 81 lines/line groups managed to exceed their former productivity level, while another 52 lines/line groups exceeded 80.0% of their former productivity (pre-NextGen). These were a mix of all frequency tiers, as well as lines that had major changes or, in many cases, minimal changes. The lowest level was 37% of former productivity, though this line and the next lowest were both impacted by the January wildfires. Two other weekday underperformers were the G Line BRT in the San Fernando Valley (53.9%) and the Vermont Rapid Line 754 (68.5%), which both relate to very low ridership recovery.
There were 14 weekday lines with productivity under 20, 3 under 10, but two were wildfire-impacted lines (Lines 134, 602), and the other was the Willowbrook - Del Amo Line 202), and these may be opportunities to better align service and ridership levels to increase productivity. In contrast, the highest weekday productivity lines were the Vermont Av Local 204 (66), Vermont Av Rapid 754 (58.8), and Western Av Local 207 (57.1), which operate in the Hollywood-South LA area.
The Saturday productivity change is slightly positive, exceeding the former productivity level, with a 4.9% increase in ridership exceeding the 2.7% increase in service hours. This suggests the Saturday NextGen changes have allocated service hours to increase ridership and productivity.
On Saturday, 43 of the 74 lines/line groups managed to exceed their former productivity level, while another 28 lines/line groups exceeded 80.0% (the majority of these were over 90%). These were a mix of all frequency tiers, as well as lines that had major changes or, in many cases, minimal changes. The lowest level was 49% of former productivity, though this line and the next lowest were both impacted by the January wildfires. One other Saturday underperformer was the G Line BRT in the San Fernando Valley, which relates to low ridership recovery.
There were 16 Saturday lines with productivity under 20, 3 under 10, but two were wildfire-impacted lines. The other was the Warner Center shuttle, which may be an important opportunity to better align service and ridership levels to increase productivity. In contrast, the highest Saturday productivity lines were the Vermont Av Local 204 (70.4), Vermont Av Rapid 754 (65.2), and Western Av Local 207 (66.2), which operate in the Hollywood-South LA area.
While the Sunday ridership was up 7.0% overall, the service hours were up 23.6% with the alignment of Sunday schedules with those of Saturday, resulting in a productivity change that is negative, i.e., well below the former productivity level. This may suggest NextGen overinvested in Sunday service, though Sunday ridership recovery has been strong.
On Sunday, of the 74 lines/line groups, 16 managed to exceed their former productivity level. These were a mix of all frequency tiers, as well as lines that had, in many cases, minimal changes. The lowest level was 47% of former productivity, though this line and the next lowest were both impacted by the January wildfires. Many other Sunday underperformers relate to low ridership recovery. Most lines were between 80.0-99.9% of former productivity. This represents an important opportunity to reassess Sunday service levels to align them with ridership levels.
There were 24 Sunday lines with productivity under 20, 3 under 10, but they were wildfire-impacted lines. The other Warner Center shuttle may be an important opportunity to better align service and ridership levels to increase productivity. In contrast, the highest Sunday productivity lines were the Vermont Av Local 204 (56.7), Vermont Av Rapid 754 (52.3), and Western Av Local 207 (53.5), which operate in the Hollywood-South LA area.
More details on line-level ridership can be found in the report (Attachment A) and data tables (Attachments B, C, D). These ridership recovery and productivity results will continue to be tracked and reported as further investments in NextGen bus speed and reliability improvements occur, including new bus lanes, and expanded transit signal priority (more details on these initiatives are in the next section). Staff will review ridership for Q2 CY2025 (April through June 2025) as the basis for the next ridership report.
Speed and Reliability
Beyond the initial Reconnect phase of the NextGen Bus Plan with route restructuring and establishment of frequency tiers, the Transit First scenario of NextGen is designed to increase ridership based on the increased speed of service/reduced travel times from implementing items from the speed and reliability toolkit. These items include new bus lanes, expanded transit signal priority, stop optimization, and reinvestment of time savings for increased service frequencies.
Progress on such speed and reliability implementations include 70.7 lane-miles of new bus priority lanes implemented at the end of CY2024 across Metro’s service area, with the Roscoe Bl bus priority lanes in San Fernando Valley being the latest to be implemented and completed at the end of October 2024. Updates on upcoming and recent projects are listed below:
Sunset Bl Boulevard Bus Priority Lanes (Metro Line 2)
Metro will begin outreach on the Sunset Bl Bus Priority Lane project in Summer 2025. This 8.4 lane-mile project on Sunset Bl, between Vermont Av and Havenhurst Dr, will improve bus speed and reliability for the over 19,000 daily weekday riders on Metro Line 2. The project proposes to convert existing peak-hour parking lanes on Sunset Bl to peak-hour bus priority lanes. This project will complement the Alvarado St bus priority lanes that were installed in 2021 and 2023, which also serve Metro Line 2.
Florence Avenue Bus Priority Lanes (Metro Line 111)
In June 2025, the designs were completed for both the City of LA and the Unincorporated LA County portions of the Florence Av Bus Priority Lanes project. This project will provide 10.2 lane-miles of peak-period bus priority lanes in both directions on Florence Av between West Bl and the Florence A Line Station. Concurrent with design, Metro is working to secure construction permits from both the City of LA and LA County. Construction is expected to begin in Q3 CY2025.
Vermont Avenue Bus Priority Lanes (Metro Lines 204 & 754)
Metro will deliver quick-build bus priority lanes to key corridor segments ahead of the larger BRT project as part of the Vermont Transit Corridor project. This will improve the speed and reliability improvements to over 36,000 daily weekday riders ahead of the larger project.
The Bus Speed Working Group identified a 5-lane-mile northern segment of Vermont Av between Sunset Bl and Wilshire Bl, as well as a 7.5-lane-mile southern segment of Vermont Av between Gage Av and Vermont/Athens C Line Station, for quick-build bus lane projects that could be delivered ahead of the BRT improvements on Vermont Av. The proposed bus lanes would be in service full-time along the southern segment and weekday peak periods along the northern segment.
Metro Community Relations staff and Community-Based Organization partners have completed briefings and presentations to interested stakeholders, community groups, and neighborhood councils, as well as outreach to businesses along Vermont Av for the overall BRT project and the quick-build bus lanes. The northern segment of the quick-build bus lanes will begin construction starting in summer 2025, with the southern segment following afterward.
Bus Lane Enforcement (BLE)
Metro continues partnering with LADOT to have dedicated parking enforcement details patrol and enforce bus lanes in the City of LA. Enforcing the no-parking regulations in the bus lanes helps riders arrive at their destinations faster and more reliably.
Metro has completed the required 60-day education and outreach effort on the affected BLE lines. There are now 100 vehicles equipped with photo/video capabilities that are capturing vehicles stopped or parked on bus lanes during posted operating hours, as well as at bus stops along the affected routes. The initial phase of the BLE program is now fully operational as of May 12, 2025. A bus lane enforcement expansion program is in early development
Metro is working with the City of West Hollywood to extend the BLE violation and citation process on the existing BLE routes within its city limits. This extended BLE program effort is targeted to begin in the mid-summer timeframe.
Equity_Platform
EQUITY PLATFORM
The NextGen Bus Plan was developed with an equity methodology, placing more service in Equity Focus Communities, which have historically been more transit dependent. A central goal of the NextGen Bus Plan is to provide improved transit service frequencies, travel times, and reliability improvements for Metro system riders. Eight in 10 Metro riders are Black, Indigenous, and/or other People of Color (BIPOC); nearly 9 in 10 live in households with total annual earnings below $50,000, and almost 6 in 10 are below the poverty line.
Improvements such as greater off-peak frequencies have helped essential workers and other riders make essential trips, with an increased share of off-peak ridership noted during the height of the pandemic.
This analysis shows that a subsequently greater proportion of increased ridership has occurred among EFC residents since the NextGen changes were implemented, with increased frequency of service and speed and reliability enhancements that continue to be implemented. By providing a fast, frequent, reliable network designed through the NextGen process, there is a significant focus on serving EFCs to provide these communities with reduced wait times, shorter travel times, and improved access to key destinations.
Staff will continue to monitor ridership in EFC and non-EFC areas to ensure NextGen benefits for marginalized groups are achieved, ensuring that enough service capacity is provided based on ridership, and that all planned NextGen speed and reliability initiatives are implemented with the intended benefits achieved. Planned service changes are agendized and presented in detail publicly at the affected Service Council region’s meetings for feedback from Councilmembers and members of the public. Staff will also continue to gather rider feedback through the various sources used to gather public input regarding bus services and related adjustments, such as comments received via Metro’s social media channels, comments received through Customer Care, and general public comment received through Service Council meetings. These channels provide valuable insight into riders' key customer experience concerns.
Vehicle_Miles_Traveled _Outcome
VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED OUTCOME
VMT and VMT per capita in Los Angeles County are lower than national averages, the lowest in the SCAG region, and on the lower end of VMT per capita statewide, with these declining VMT trends due in part to Metro’s significant investment in rail and bus transit.* Metro’s Board-adopted VMT reduction targets align with California’s statewide climate goals, including achieving carbon neutrality by 2045. To ensure continued progress, all Board items are assessed for their potential impact on VMT to ensure continued progress.
This item supports Metro’s systemwide strategy to reduce VMT through planning and operational activities that will improve and further encourage transit ridership, ridesharing, and active transportation. Metro’s Board-adopted VMT reduction targets were designed to build on the success of existing investments, and this item aligns with those objectives.
While this item does not directly encourage taking transit, sharing a ride, or using active transportation, it is a vital part of Metro operations, as it assesses Metro bus ridership trends. Because the Metro Board has adopted an agency-wide VMT Reduction Target, and this item supports the overall function of the agency, this item is consistent with the goals of reducing VMT.
*Based on population estimates from the United States Census and VMT estimates from Caltrans’ Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) data between 2001-2019.
Implementation_of_Strategic_Plan_Goals
IMPLEMENTATION OF STRATEGIC PLAN GOALS
The recommendation supports strategic plan goals:
Goal #1: Provide high-quality mobility options that enable people to spend less time traveling. Improving the speed and reliability of the bus network will reduce transit travel times and improve competitiveness with other transportation options.
Goal #2: Deliver outstanding trip experiences for all transportation system users. These initiatives help to move more people within the same street capacity, where currently transit users suffer service delays and reliability issues because of single-occupant drivers.
Goal #3: Enhance communities and lives through mobility and access to opportunity. With faster transit service and improved reliability, residents have increased access to education and employment, with greater confidence that they will reach their destination on time.
Next_Steps
NEXT STEPS
The NextGen Bus Plan network ridership will continue to be monitored through 2025 as Metro continues to deliver full service based on the NextGen Bus Plan. The agency will continue to hire new bus operators to remain fully staffed and to reliably deliver full service daily. Metro will also continue implementing bus speed and reliability improvements, such as new bus lanes. Another update is planned for the Board in mid-2025, tracking the detailed progress on ridership recovery during Q1 CY2025.
Attachments
ATTACHMENTS
Attachment A - NextGen Ridership Analysis Q1 CY2025
Attachment B - Weekday Ridership Recovery Comparison by Line and Line Group
Attachment C - Saturday Ridership Recovery Comparison by Line and Line Group
Attachment D - Sunday Ridership Recovery Comparison by Line and Line Group
Prepared_by
Prepared by:
Joe Forgiarini, Senior Executive Officer, Service Development, (213) 418-3400
Reviewed_By
Reviewed by:
Conan Cheung, Chief Operations Officer, (213) 418-3034
