Metro - File #: 2017-0550

• File #: 2017-0550
• Type: Informational Report
• Status: Agenda Ready
• File created: 8/9/2017
• In control: Planning and Programming Committee
• On agenda: 10/18/2017
• Title: RECEIVE AND FILE financial forecast update.
• Sponsors: Planning and Programming Committee
• Indexes: Budget, Budgeting, Bus rapid transit, Capital Project, Debt, Federal Transit Administration, Grant Aid, Informational Report, Long range planning, Long Range Transportation Plan, Maintenance practices, Measure M, Measure R, New Starts Program, Operations and Maintenance, Project delivery, Senate Bill 1, Short Range Transportation Plan, Southern California Association Of Governments, State Of Good Repair

Meeting_Body
PLANNING AND PROGRAMMING COMMITTEE
OCTOBER 18, 2017
EXECUTIVE MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE
OCTOBER 19, 2017

Subject
SUBJECT: FINANCIAL FORECAST UPDATE AND BASELINE
FOR THE LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

Action
ACTION: RECEIVE AND FILE

Heading
RECOMMENDATION

Title
RECEIVE AND FILE financial forecast update.

Issue
ISSUE

This report provides an update of the Financial Forecast for the Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), providing a financial baseline for the pending update of that plan. Importantly, it illustrates how existing commitments - coupled with key assumptions regarding investment priorities - impacts Metro's estimated capacity to deliver transportation services, projects and programs. Attachment A provides more detailed financial information to support the findings in this report. Key among those is that while this baseline suggests that current commitments can be achieved-including operating the existing transit system, addressing state of good repair projected needs, and honoring all Measure R and M commitments as outlined in their respective Ordinances--, there are potential challenges should major assumptions shift in the future.

Discussion
DISCUSSION

BACKGROUND

The Financial Forecast (Forecast) provides a funding framework for operation and maintenance of the Metro transportation system, as well as new capital financial commitments. It includes assumptions for all available resources and is prepared in accordance with the funding and timing requirements in Metro's sales tax ordinances and Board policies, along with state and federal regulations. This Forecast is a part of the LRTP update and will provide a financial baseline for evaluating different assumptions and the resulting impacts on our financial capacity.

This Financial Baseline forecast covers the 40-year period from FY 2018 through FY 2057. It is important to note that long-range forecasts are exactly that - estimates based on the best available informati...