Meeting_Body
PLANNING AND PROGRAMMING COMMITTEE
JUNE 19, 2019
Subject
SUBJECT: LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN UPDATE
Action
ACTION: RECEIVE AND FILE
Heading
RECOMMENDATION
Title
RECEIVE AND FILE status report on the Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) Update, including the following informational items:
A. Draft Baseline Understanding Framework; and
B. Draft Values Framework.
Issue
ISSUE
This status report on the development of the LRTP Update includes a Draft Baseline Understanding Framework (Attachment A, with appendices in Attachment B), which provides a preliminary analysis of existing Los Angeles County conditions and communities as a foundation for the LRTP’s analysis of its forty-year horizon; and it also includes a Draft Values Framework (Attachment C), which addresses performance-based planning. The performance measures include equity metrics for the evaluation of the current transportation system and future transportation investments.
Discussion
DISCUSSION
Background
In September 2017, the LRTP Update Work Plan was presented to the Metro Board (Legistar File No. 2017-0548); it included a scope of work that has distinct chapters for development and timelines for key deliverables to the Board. In March 2018, the Board was presented the Orientation and Context framework (Legistar File No. 2018-0003). In January 2019, the Board received a Public Engagement Summary Report (Phase 1), and a Draft Mobility Plan to Access Opportunity Framework (Legistar File No. 2018-0622).
Draft Baseline Understanding Framework
The attached Draft Baseline Understanding Framework includes the following information about the existing transportation system and Metro stakeholders, which will be further developed in the completed draft LRTP:
• Travel Demand Model analysis of current travel patterns and other research for the existing system;
• Socio-demographic information and trends about the communities Metro serves; and
• Partner agency information, including strategic efforts and related plans.
Demographic Forecast Adjustments
The Baseline for the LRTP update has demographic forecast adjustments from the last LRTP. Specifically, the 2020 LRTP baseline has approximately 800,000 fewer residents in the population and 680,000 fewer jobs throughout the County than was forecast in the 2009 LRTP. The 2009 LRTP projections were based on the 2004 Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). Those forecasts were adjusted in SCAG’s 2016 Regional Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS), following the recession. SCAG’s 2020 RTP/SCS forecasts a population increase of approximately 1,600,000 and employment increase of 700,000 by 2045, which is an addition of more than the current population of San Diego.
Research is ongoing and will continue in these areas until the LRTP Update is complete.
Draft Values Framework
The Values Framework is designed to establish objectives for the decision-making process and provide performance measures to evaluate progress toward those objectives. The Values Framework will speak to the entire LRTP and the objectives will advance the goals in Vision 2028.
The attached Draft Values Framework includes the following elements, which will be further developed in the completed draft LRTP:
• Discussion of applicable values and guiding principles;
• Plan objectives based on goals;
• Performance measures;
• Equity specific performance; and
• Scenario testing.
Addressing Equity
The LRTP Update began with Equity as a guiding theme, and the commitment was confirmed when the Metro Board adopted the Equity Platform in February 2018. To evaluate areas most in need of equity throughout the County, the Values Framework examines the correlations between various demographic factors and opportunity gaps. The resulting “Equity Focus Communities” (EFCs) are identified to measure/track future equity impacts from a transportation perspective. The EFCs and the related equity-specific performance measures will help indicate specific outcomes and benefits of LRTP investments within the EFCs.
The Metro Travel Demand Model, used to assess the transportation system baseline, is always being updated. It will be adjusted for a variety of sensitivity tests and alternatives scenarios to help inform the LRTP development. It will evaluate the scenario test performance, as well as help forecast the performance of planned investments. Other data sources for the draft LRTP performance measures are listed in Attachment C (p. 16-20).
EQUITY PLATFORM
The LRTP Baseline Understanding Framework addresses the following two pillars of the Platform:
Define & Measure - Baseline Understanding Framework examines current countywide conditions to prepare for future growth and investments. This information includes distribution of the population and access, or lack thereof, to resources and opportunities. The Values Framework utilizes EFCs to highlight populations in LA County that face greater barriers to opportunity. In so doing, Metro can measure the progress over time in closing these gaps through its partnerships, policies and programs.
Listen & Learn - Metro will continue to engage stakeholders about their priorities for the LRTP Update in Public Outreach Phase 2 to help shape the objectives in the Values chapter. This outreach is distinct from the equity-listening conducted at the Policy Advisory Council (PAC), and through PAC Equity Working Group. The data and risk correlations discussed in these frameworks regarding equity was evaluated in consultation with academia and partner agencies.
Determination_Of_Safety_Impact
DETERMINATION OF SAFETY IMPACT
This report has no impact on safety because no action results from this receive and file report.
Financial_Impact
FINANCIAL IMPACT
This item has no fiscal impact to the agency because no action results from this receive and file report.
Impact to Budget
Activities associated with completing the LRTP update are budgeted in the current fiscal year and are within budget.
Implementation_of_Strategic_Plan_Goals
IMPLEMENTATION OF STRATEGIC PLAN GOALS
The LRTP will advance all five goals of Vision 2028 because it is foundational to this update and is specifically called upon to implement performance measures for system improvement. An assessment of the current system baseline (Attachment A) is an essential preliminary step to planning for system improvement.
Alternatives_Considered
ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED
A detailed baseline discussion is necessary for the LRTP update process to be comprehensive and have a subsequent valid performance analysis, as part of the future technical work to be performed as part of the LRTP Update process. Similarly, a Values Framework, with performance validation, is essential to accurately evaluate the needs and priorities of the region. This basic methodological approach is required to meet certain state and federal requirements, necessary for Metro to receive state and federal funds. This performance based approach is also a component of the Board adopted Vision 2028. Therefore, no alternative was considered.
Next_Steps
NEXT STEPS
The Baseline and Values sections of the LRTP will continue to be revised and completed during the development of the full LRTP Update, along with the sections for future projects, policies and operational plans. The LRTP Update is scheduled to be completed by the end of fiscal year 2020, which generally aligns with SCAG’s 2020 RTP/SCS update. Close coordination of the LRTP development and SCAG’s RTP/SCS is critical to ensure the inclusion of all funded Metro projects and programs in determining the attainment of federal and state air quality mandates.
All pending chapters regarding future plans to build, fund and operate the system will be aligned with Vision 2028 goals and actions. Once completed, the full LRTP draft will be presented for Board adoption. However, the LRTP Update process remains flexible to address any Board initiatives, including any outcomes from Twenty-eight by ‘28. The LRTP is a necessary technical planning document that transparently tells the long-term story of Metro’s priorities and how it intends to achieve those.
Attachments
ATTACHMENTS
Attachment A - Draft Baseline Understanding Framework
Attachment B - Baseline Technical Appendices
Attachment C - Draft Values Framework
Prepared_by
Prepared by: Kalieh Honish, EO, Countywide Planning & Development, (213) 922-7109
Manjeet Ranu, SEO, Countywide Planning & Development, (213) 418-3157
Mark Yamarone, DEO, Countywide Planning & Development, (213) 418-3452
Rena Lum, Senior Director, Countywide Planning & Development, (213) 922-6963
Reviewed_By
Reviewed by: Laurie Lombardi, Interim Chief Planning Officer, (213) 418-3251
